Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Nov 3, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 3492
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, November 10
YX 3492 · ORD → ROC
departs 10:38 AM CT · arrives 1:34 PM ET
Forecast issued Sat 4:00 PM ET · 68h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 18%
Sun 11/8 7%
Mon 11/9 6%
Tue 11/10
Wed 11/11 15%
Thu 11/12 9%
Fri 11/13 12%
Odds over time
Arrive at ROC more than 15 minutes late?
6%
chance · ±0 pts
−9 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
6%
Leave 15+ late
7%
Arrive 1h+ late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.5d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ROC more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed −9 pts in 24h
−9 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Leave ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed −8 pts in 24h
−8 pts
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Arrive at ROC more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ROC?
On time or early
94%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
10am departures from ORD are often late
↑
ORD is busy at that time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD
↓
YX's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
ORD (origin)
Gusts 13 kt
Ceiling none (clear)
Visibility 10+ mi
Precip none
ROC (destination)
Gusts 25 kt
Ceiling 11,333 ft
Visibility 10+ mi
Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.