Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Nov 3, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4378
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, November 10
YX 4378 · RDU → JFK
departs 1:37 PM ET · arrives 3:22 PM ET
Forecast issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 62h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 18%
Mon 11/9 20%
Tue 11/10
Wed 11/11 29%
Thu 11/12 28%
Fri 11/13 36%
Sat 11/14 18%
Odds over time
Arrive at JFK more than 15 minutes late?
14%
chance · ±1 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
14%
Leave 15+ late
6%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.6d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at JFK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed – in 24h
–
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Leave RDU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Arrive at JFK more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to JFK?
On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
1%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
JFK is prone to delays
↑
RDU is prone to delays
↑
1pm departures from RDU are often late
↓
Tuesdays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at RDU
Weather at each end
RDU (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
JFK (destination)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.