Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Nov 3, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4383
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, November 10 Tomorrow
YX 4383 · IND → STL
departs 9:21 PM ET · arrives 9:32 PM CT
Forecast issued Mon 3:00 AM ET · 42h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at STL more than 15 minutes late?
7%
chance · ±0 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
7%
Leave 15+ late
8%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.9d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at STL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Leave IND more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Arrive at STL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to STL?
On time or early
92%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Arrivals into STL at that hour are often late
↑
Other factors
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at IND
↓
Tuesdays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
IND (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
STL (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.