Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Nov 3, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4386
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, November 10
YX 4386 · LGA → RDU
departs 1:35 PM ET · arrives 3:25 PM ET
Forecast issued Sat 10:00 PM ET · 64h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 37%
Sun 11/8 17%
Mon 11/9 30%
Tue 11/10
Wed 11/11 40%
Thu 11/12 42%
Fri 11/13 33%
Odds over time
Arrive at RDU more than 15 minutes late?
12%
chance · ±5 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
12%
Leave 15+ late
12%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.6d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at RDU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed – in 24h
–
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Leave LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed – in 24h
–
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Arrive at RDU more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed – in 24h
–
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to RDU?
On time or early
88%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
1pm departures from LGA are often late
↑
This flight has been late 31% of the time recently
↑
LGA is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA
↓
Tuesdays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
LGA (origin)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
RDU (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.