Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Nov 3, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4459
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, November 10
YX 4459 · RDU → LGA
departs 11:32 AM ET · arrives 1:16 PM ET
Forecast issued Sat 5:00 PM ET · 66h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Sun 11/8 22%
Mon 11/9 30%
Tue 11/10
Wed 11/11 34%
Thu 11/12 44%
Fri 11/13 35%
Odds over time
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
15%
chance · ±2 pts
−7 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
15%
Leave 15+ late
8%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.5d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed −7 pts in 24h
−7 pts
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Leave RDU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed −9 pts in 24h
−9 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Arrive at LGA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LGA?
On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This flight has been late 30% of the time recently
↑
RDU is prone to delays
↑
Arrivals into LGA at that hour are often late
↓
Tuesdays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA
Weather at each end
RDU (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
LGA (destination)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.