Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Nov 3, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4472
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, November 10
YX 4472 · LGA → XNA
departs 1:28 PM ET · arrives 3:40 PM CT
Forecast issued Sat 9:00 PM ET · 64h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 20%
Sun 11/8 13%
Mon 11/9 19%
Tue 11/10
Wed 11/11 32%
Thu 11/12 35%
Fri 11/13 26%
Odds over time
Arrive at XNA more than 15 minutes late?
9%
chance · ±5 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
9%
Leave 15+ late
10%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.6d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at XNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed – in 24h
–
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Leave LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed – in 24h
–
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Arrive at XNA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed – in 24h
–
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to XNA?
On time or early
90%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
1%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
1pm departures from LGA are often late
↑
This flight has been late 21% of the time recently
↑
Other factors
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA
↓
Tuesdays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
LGA (origin)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
XNA (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 4,400 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.