Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Nov 3, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4492
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, November 10
YX 4492 · CHS → LGA
departs 11:32 AM ET · arrives 1:42 PM ET
Forecast issued Sat 4:00 PM ET · 68h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Sun 11/8 15%
Mon 11/9 18%
Tue 11/10
Wed 11/11 19%
Thu 11/12 31%
Fri 11/13 35%
Odds over time
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
7%
chance · ±2 pts
−6 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
7%
Leave 15+ late
6%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.5d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed −6 pts in 24h
−6 pts
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Leave CHS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed −10 pts in 24h
−10 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Arrive at LGA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed −6 pts in 24h
−6 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LGA?
On time or early
92%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
<1%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into LGA at that hour are often late
↑
LGA is prone to delays
↑
LGA is busy at that time
↓
Tuesdays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA
Weather at each end
CHS (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 8 mi Precip none
LGA (destination)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.