Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Nov 3, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4699
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, November 10
YX 4699 · AUS → PHL
departs 2:14 PM CT · arrives 7:07 PM ET
Forecast issued Sun 3:00 AM ET · 60h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 31%
Mon 11/9 20%
Tue 11/10
Wed 11/11 25%
Thu 11/12 20%
Fri 11/13 16%
Odds over time
Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?
15%
chance · ±1 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
15%
Leave 15+ late
17%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.6d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed – in 24h
–
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Leave AUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed – in 24h
–
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Arrive at PHL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to PHL?
On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
2pm departures from AUS are often late
↑
Arrivals into PHL at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
YX's recent on-time record
↓
Tuesdays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
AUS (origin)
Gusts 5 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip none
PHL (destination)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.