Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Nov 3, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 5761
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, November 10
YX 5761 · LGA → BOS
departs 12:00 PM ET · arrives 1:21 PM ET
Forecast issued Sat 4:00 PM ET · 68h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Sun 11/8 14%
Mon 11/9 14%
Tue 11/10
Wed 11/11 26%
Thu 11/12 32%
Fri 11/13 27%
Odds over time
Arrive at BOS more than 15 minutes late?
5%
chance · ±1 pts
−10 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
5%
Leave 15+ late
7%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.5d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BOS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed −10 pts in 24h
−10 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Leave LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed −8 pts in 24h
−8 pts
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Arrive at BOS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BOS?
On time or early
94%
15–30 min late
1%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
12pm departures from LGA are often late
↑
This flight has been late 21% of the time recently
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BOS
Weather at each end
LGA (origin)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
BOS (destination)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.