9E 5502 · DTW → SDF

took off 1:08 PM ET · expected to land 2:00 PM ET (scheduled 12:59 PM ET → 2:25 PM ET)

Forecast issued Wed 12:00 PM ET · 1h before departure

Arrive at SDF more than 15 minutes late?

<1% chance · ±0 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to SDF?

LIVE

On time or early
100%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 12pm departures from DTW are often late

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at DTW

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at SDF

↓ Wednesdays in November are usually quieter than average

↓ 9E's recent on-time record

Weather at each end

DTW (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling3,900 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.03 in

SDF (destination) Gusts16 kt Ceiling7,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.15 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

9E 5502 · DTW → SDF

Odds over time

How late will it get to SDF?