Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Nov 4, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 1185 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, November 11

AS 1185 · OGG → HNL

departs 4:01 PM HT · arrives 4:51 PM HT

Forecast issued Mon 2:00 AM ET · 67h before departure

Arrive at HNL more than 15 minutes late?

18% chance · ±5 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to HNL?

On time or early
81%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 25% of the time recently

↑ Other factors

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Wednesdays in November are usually quieter than average

↓ Gusts to 32 kt forecast at HNL that day

Weather at each end

OGG (origin) Gusts41 kt Ceiling4,400 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

HNL (destination) Gusts32 kt Ceiling3,200 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 1185 · OGG → HNL

Odds over time

How late will it get to HNL?