Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Nov 4, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 1438 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, November 11

AS 1438 · SAN → SFO

departs 8:02 PM PT · arrives 9:36 PM PT

Forecast issued Mon 3:00 AM ET · 68h before departure

Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?

18% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SFO?

On time or early
81%
15–30 min late
1%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 45% of the time recently

↑ Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

↓ Wednesdays in November are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

SAN (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SFO (destination) Gusts7 kt Ceiling1,700 ft Visibility5 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 1438 · SAN → SFO

Odds over time

How late will it get to SFO?