tailodds FORECAST

Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Nov 4, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 17 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL ODDS

AS 17 · JFK → SEA

departs 6:38 PM ET · arrives 9:05 PM PT
Forecast issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 103h before departure

Typical odds Too early for a weather forecast — these are typical odds for this flight on a Wednesday in November, from the weather this date has had in past years (the range shows how much they varied). They’ll switch to forecast-based odds about 3 days before departure.

Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?
56% chance · ±23 pts +0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE Low. This is mostly a starting point from history; weather forecasts haven't kicked in yet.
MOSTLY HISTORY WEATHER FORECASTS LIVE IN THE AIR 0% 25% 50% 75% 100% 6.8d Now 2d 1d 12h 6h Departs Lands

How late will it get to SEA?

  1. On time or early
    43%
  2. 15–30 min late
    18%
  3. 30 min–1 hour late
    18%
  4. 1–2 hours late
    9%
  5. Over 2 hours late
    10%
  6. Cancelled
    3%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.