Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 2691 LANDED 2:53 AM PT, ~6 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Wednesday, November 11 Today

AS 2691 · CVG → SMF

took off 1:25 AM ET · landed 2:53 AM PT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Wed 12:00 PM ET · 11h after departure

Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?

18% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This route's recent record

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at CVG

↑ Other factors

↓ Wednesdays in November are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF

Weather at each end

CVG (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceiling4,433 ft Visibility8 mi Precip0.11 in

SMF (destination) Gusts3 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 2691 · CVG → SMF

Odds over time