Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Nov 4, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 502 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, November 11

AS 502 · PDX → GEG

departs 5:29 PM PT · arrives 6:39 PM PT

Forecast issued Sun 10:00 PM ET · 70h before departure

Arrive at GEG more than 15 minutes late?

13% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to GEG?

On time or early
87%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ 5pm departures from PDX are often late

↑ Other factors

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PDX

↓ Wednesdays in November are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

PDX (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility8 mi Precipnone

GEG (destination) Gusts7 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility2 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 502 · PDX → GEG

Odds over time

How late will it get to GEG?