Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Nov 4, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 66 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, November 11

AS 66 · YAK → JNU

departs 4:47 PM AKST · arrives 5:40 PM AKST

Forecast issued Sun 11:00 PM ET · 70h before departure

Arrive at JNU more than 15 minutes late?

13% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to JNU?

On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 1,400 ft, 0.3 in of rain forecast at YAK that day

↑ Cloud base down to 1,400 ft, 0.5 in of rain forecast at JNU that day

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Wednesdays in November are usually quieter than average

↓ 4pm departures from YAK are usually not late

Weather at each end

YAK (origin) Gusts15 kt Ceiling1,400 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.33 in

JNU (destination) Gusts18 kt Ceiling1,400 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.45 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 66 · YAK → JNU

Odds over time

How late will it get to JNU?