Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Nov 4, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 7028 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, November 11

AS 7028 · OTZ → ANC

departs 4:12 PM AKST · arrives 5:56 PM AKT

Forecast issued Sun 11:00 PM ET · 69h before departure

Arrive at ANC more than 15 minutes late?

23% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ANC?

On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
3%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 1,100 ft, visibility down to 0.2 mi forecast at OTZ that day

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at ANC

↓ ANC usually runs smoothly

↓ Wednesdays in November are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

OTZ (origin) Gusts7 kt Ceiling1,100 ft Visibility0.2 mi Precipnone

ANC (destination) Gusts6 kt Ceiling2,500 ft Visibility7 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 7028 · OTZ → ANC

Odds over time

How late will it get to ANC?