Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Nov 4, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 1412
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, November 11
DL 1412 · SEA → SFO
departs 10:57 AM PT · arrives 1:07 PM PT
Forecast issued Mon 10:00 PM ET · 40h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 50%
Tue 11/10 53%
Wed 11/11
Thu 11/12 41%
Fri 11/13 63%
Sat 11/14 43%
Sun 11/15 37%
Odds over time
Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?
24%
chance · ±3 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
24%
Leave 15+ late
20%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.6d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
24%
Yes 24%
No 76%
Leave SEA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Arrive at SFO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SFO?
On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This flight has been late 36% of the time recently
↑
SFO is prone to delays
↑
Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late
↓
Wednesdays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
Cloud base down to 400 ft forecast at SFO that day
Weather at each end
SEA (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 4,500 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.01 in
SFO (destination)
Gusts 6 kt Ceiling 400 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.