Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Nov 4, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 1793
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, November 11
DL 1793 · LAX → PVR
departs 10:56 AM PT · arrives 3:56 PM CST
Forecast issued Mon 11:00 PM ET · 39h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 20%
Wed 11/11
Thu 11/12 23%
Fri 11/13 24%
Sat 11/14 28%
Sun 11/15 30%
Odds over time
Arrive at PVR more than 15 minutes late?
18%
chance · ±2 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
18%
Leave 15+ late
16%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.6d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PVR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Leave LAX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 17% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Arrive at PVR more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to PVR?
On time or early
81%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
10am departures from LAX are often late
↑
LAX is prone to delays
↑
LAX is busy at that time
↓
Wednesdays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
DL's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
LAX (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 8 mi Precip none
PVR (destination)
Gusts — Ceiling — Visibility — Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.