Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Nov 4, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 1852
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, November 11 Tomorrow
DL 1852 · MCO → DTW
departs 2:00 PM ET · arrives 4:37 PM ET
Forecast issued Mon 11:00 PM ET · 39h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 14%
Wed 11/11
Thu 11/12 25%
Fri 11/13 24%
Sat 11/14 30%
Sun 11/15 32%
Odds over time
Arrive at DTW more than 15 minutes late?
17%
chance · ±2 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
17%
Leave 15+ late
16%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.6d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DTW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Leave MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Arrive at DTW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DTW?
On time or early
82%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
2pm departures from MCO are often late
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at MCO
↑
Arrivals into DTW at that hour are often late
↓
Wednesdays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
DL's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
MCO (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 4,500 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip 0.04 in
DTW (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 2,567 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.02 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.