Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Nov 4, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 1914
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, November 11
DL 1914 · IAH → DTW
departs 11:17 AM CT · arrives 3:00 PM ET
Forecast issued Mon 11:00 AM ET · 49h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 20%
Tue 11/10 12%
Wed 11/11
Thu 11/12 20%
Fri 11/13 19%
Sat 11/14 23%
Sun 11/15 22%
Odds over time
Arrive at DTW more than 15 minutes late?
10%
chance · ±1 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
10%
Leave 15+ late
9%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.5d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DTW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Leave IAH more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Arrive at DTW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DTW?
On time or early
90%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
11am departures from IAH are often late
↑
IAH is busy at that time
↑
Other factors
↓
Wednesdays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at IAH
Weather at each end
IAH (origin)
Gusts 6 kt Ceiling 4,200 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
DTW (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 567 ft Visibility 1.66667 mi Precip 0.01 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.