Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Nov 4, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 2240
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, November 11
DL 2240 · LGA → ORD
departs 11:30 AM ET · arrives 1:05 PM CT
Forecast issued Mon 3:00 AM ET · 56h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 33%
Tue 11/10 14%
Wed 11/11
Thu 11/12 46%
Fri 11/13 38%
Sat 11/14 27%
Sun 11/15 33%
Odds over time
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
22%
chance · ±6 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
22%
Leave 15+ late
11%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.5d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed – in 24h
–
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Leave LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed – in 24h
–
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Arrive at ORD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ORD?
On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late
↑
This flight has been late 25% of the time recently
↑
11am departures from LGA are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA
↓
Wednesdays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
LGA (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
ORD (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.04 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.