Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Nov 4, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 2412
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, November 11
DL 2412 · LGA → SRQ
departs 9:33 AM ET · arrives 12:29 PM ET
Forecast issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 66h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 20%
Mon 11/9 11%
Tue 11/10 7%
Wed 11/11
Thu 11/12 36%
Fri 11/13 27%
Sat 11/14 12%
Odds over time
Arrive at SRQ more than 15 minutes late?
6%
chance · ±1 pts
−18 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
6%
Leave 15+ late
8%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.4d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SRQ more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed −18 pts in 24h
−18 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Leave LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed −12 pts in 24h
−12 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Arrive at SRQ more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −17 pts in 24h
−17 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SRQ?
On time or early
93%
15–30 min late
1%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
9am departures from LGA are often late
↑
Other factors
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA
↓
Wednesdays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
LGA (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SRQ (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 5,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.