Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Nov 4, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 2868
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, November 11
DL 2868 · STL → DTW
departs 10:19 AM CT · arrives 12:53 PM ET
Forecast issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 59h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 9%
Tue 11/10 4%
Wed 11/11
Thu 11/12 11%
Fri 11/13 9%
Sat 11/14 12%
Sun 11/15 12%
Odds over time
Arrive at DTW more than 15 minutes late?
4%
chance · ±0 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
4%
Leave 15+ late
6%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
3%
6%
9%
12%
6.5d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DTW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Leave STL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed – in 24h
–
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Arrive at DTW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DTW?
On time or early
95%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
1%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Other factors
↓
Wednesdays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DTW
Weather at each end
STL (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 4,300 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.16 in
DTW (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 2,000 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.