Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Nov 4, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 3854
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, November 11
OO 3854 · GRB → DTW
departs 5:58 PM CT · arrives 8:20 PM ET
Forecast issued Mon 10:00 AM ET · 57h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 14%
Tue 11/10 8%
Wed 11/11
Thu 11/12 17%
Fri 11/13 18%
Sat 11/14 18%
Odds over time
Arrive at DTW more than 15 minutes late?
12%
chance · ±2 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
12%
Leave 15+ late
20%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.8d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DTW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed – in 24h
–
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Leave GRB more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed – in 24h
–
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Arrive at DTW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DTW?
On time or early
87%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Arrivals into DTW at that hour are often late
↑
5pm departures from GRB are often late
↓
Wednesdays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
DTW usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
GRB (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 2,433 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.01 in
DTW (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 567 ft Visibility 1.66667 mi Precip 0.01 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.