Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Nov 4, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 4043
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, November 11
OO 4043 · SEA → SMF
departs 5:00 PM PT · arrives 6:57 PM PT
Forecast issued Tue 1:00 AM ET · 43h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 20%
Wed 11/11
Thu 11/12 13%
Fri 11/13 26%
Sat 11/14 23%
Sun 11/15 21%
Mon 11/16 21%
Odds over time
Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?
12%
chance · ±1 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
12%
Leave 15+ late
11%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Leave SEA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Arrive at SMF more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SMF?
On time or early
87%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
5pm departures from SEA are often late
↑
SEA is busy at that time
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Wednesdays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF
Weather at each end
SEA (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 4,167 ft Visibility 9.33333 mi Precip 0.01 in
SMF (destination)
Gusts 4 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 5 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.