Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Nov 4, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 4278
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, November 11
OO 4278 · DTW → CIU
departs 6:15 PM ET · arrives 7:32 PM ET
Forecast issued Mon 1:00 AM ET · 65h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 15%
Tue 11/10 10%
Wed 11/11
Thu 11/12 22%
Fri 11/13 22%
Sat 11/14 23%
Sun 11/15 33%
Odds over time
Arrive at CIU more than 15 minutes late?
14%
chance · ±1 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
14%
Leave 15+ late
16%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.8d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at CIU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed – in 24h
–
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Leave DTW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed – in 24h
–
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Arrive at CIU more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to CIU?
On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This flight has been late 28% of the time recently
↑
6pm departures from DTW are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Wednesdays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DTW
Weather at each end
DTW (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 2,000 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip none
CIU (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 1,300 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.