Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Nov 4, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 5243
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, November 11
OO 5243 · MTY → IAH
departs 5:57 PM CST · arrives 7:40 PM CT
Forecast issued Mon 6:00 AM ET · 61h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 26%
Tue 11/10 18%
Wed 11/11
Thu 11/12 23%
Fri 11/13 21%
Sat 11/14 24%
Sun 11/15 21%
Odds over time
Arrive at IAH more than 15 minutes late?
16%
chance · ±0 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
16%
Leave 15+ late
15%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.8d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at IAH more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed – in 24h
–
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Leave MTY more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed – in 24h
–
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Arrive at IAH more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to IAH?
On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into IAH at that hour are often late
↑
OO's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at IAH
↓
Wednesdays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
MTY (origin)
Gusts 6 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 6 mi Precip none
IAH (destination)
Gusts 6 kt Ceiling 4,200 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.01 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.