Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Nov 4, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 5312
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, November 11
OO 5312 · FSD → ORD
departs 6:38 PM CT · arrives 8:28 PM CT
Forecast issued Mon 2:00 PM ET · 54h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 40%
Tue 11/10 20%
Wed 11/11
Thu 11/12 43%
Fri 11/13 42%
Sun 11/15 44%
Odds over time
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
46%
chance · ±1 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
46%
Leave 15+ late
30%
Arrive 1h+ late
13%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 23% · changed – in 24h
–
46%
Yes 46%
No 54%
Leave FSD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed – in 24h
–
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Arrive at ORD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to ORD?
On time or early
53%
15–30 min late
19%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late
↑
This flight has been late 38% of the time recently
↑
ORD is busy at that time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at FSD
↓
Wednesdays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
FSD (origin)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
ORD (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 2,400 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.05 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.