Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Nov 4, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 5418
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, November 11
OO 5418 · ORD → MSN
departs 6:01 PM CT · arrives 7:04 PM CT
Forecast issued Mon 9:00 AM ET · 58h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 36%
Tue 11/10 16%
Wed 11/11
Thu 11/12 29%
Fri 11/13 26%
Sat 11/14 34%
Sun 11/15 41%
Odds over time
Arrive at MSN more than 15 minutes late?
32%
chance · ±2 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
32%
Leave 15+ late
32%
Arrive 1h+ late
13%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.8d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MSN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed – in 24h
–
32%
Yes 32%
No 68%
Leave ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 21% · changed – in 24h
–
32%
Yes 32%
No 68%
Arrive at MSN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MSN?
On time or early
67%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
6pm departures from ORD are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Cloud base down to 600 ft forecast at ORD that day
↓
Wednesdays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
MSN usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
ORD (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.03 in
MSN (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 4,600 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.