Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Nov 4, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 5420
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, November 11
OO 5420 · MKE → ORD
departs 6:20 PM CT · arrives 7:20 PM CT
Forecast issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · 51h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 42%
Tue 11/10 24%
Wed 11/11
Thu 11/12 38%
Fri 11/13 39%
Sat 11/14 42%
Sun 11/15 48%
Odds over time
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
41%
chance · ±1 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
41%
Leave 15+ late
27%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 24% · changed – in 24h
–
41%
Yes 41%
No 59%
Leave MKE more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed – in 24h
–
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Arrive at ORD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed – in 24h
–
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to ORD?
On time or early
57%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late
↑
ORD is busy at that time
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Wednesdays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
MKE usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
MKE (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 2,200 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.02 in
ORD (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 2,400 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.05 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.