Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Nov 4, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 5516
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, November 11
OO 5516 · GRR → ORD
departs 6:21 PM ET · arrives 6:28 PM CT
Forecast issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 66h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 22%
Tue 11/10 18%
Wed 11/11
Thu 11/12 41%
Fri 11/13 32%
Sat 11/14 37%
Sun 11/15 41%
Odds over time
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
41%
chance · ±1 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
41%
Leave 15+ late
26%
Arrive 1h+ late
14%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.8d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed – in 24h
–
41%
Yes 41%
No 59%
Leave GRR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed – in 24h
–
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Arrive at ORD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ORD?
On time or early
58%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late
↑
Cloud base down to 600 ft forecast at ORD that day
↑
This flight has been late 39% of the time recently
↓
Wednesdays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
GRR usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
GRR (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip none
ORD (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.01 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.