Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Nov 4, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 5770
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, November 11
OO 5770 · SFO → SMF
departs 4:14 PM PT · arrives 5:09 PM PT
Forecast issued Mon 3:00 PM ET · 52h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 51%
Tue 11/10 22%
Wed 11/11
Thu 11/12 31%
Fri 11/13 47%
Sat 11/14 34%
Sun 11/15 34%
Odds over time
Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?
17%
chance · ±3 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
17%
Leave 15+ late
16%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 17% · changed – in 24h
–
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Leave SFO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed – in 24h
–
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Arrive at SMF more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed – in 24h
–
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SMF?
On time or early
82%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
4pm departures from SFO are often late
↑
This flight has been late 25% of the time recently
↑
SFO is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO
↓
Wednesdays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
SFO (origin)
Gusts 6 kt Ceiling 1,800 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip none
SMF (destination)
Gusts 4 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 9 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.