Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Nov 4, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 5871
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, November 11
OO 5871 · LEX → ORD
departs 6:16 PM ET · arrives 6:54 PM CT
Forecast issued Sun 11:00 PM ET · 67h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 44%
Mon 11/9 31%
Tue 11/10 22%
Wed 11/11
Thu 11/12 41%
Fri 11/13 43%
Sat 11/14 46%
Odds over time
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
41%
chance · ±2 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
41%
Leave 15+ late
16%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.8d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed – in 24h
–
41%
Yes 41%
No 59%
Leave LEX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed – in 24h
–
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Arrive at ORD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed – in 24h
–
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ORD?
On time or early
58%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
18%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late
↑
ORD is busy at that time
↑
Cloud base down to 600 ft forecast at ORD that day
↓
Wednesdays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LEX
Weather at each end
LEX (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 4,800 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
ORD (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.01 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.