Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Nov 4, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 6241
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, November 11 Tomorrow
OO 6241 · PHX → FSD
departs 7:56 PM MT · arrives 11:44 PM CT
Forecast issued Tue 4:00 PM ET · 30h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 13%
Wed 11/11
Thu 11/12 19%
Fri 11/13 22%
Sat 11/14 18%
Sun 11/15 28%
Mon 11/16 25%
Odds over time
Arrive at FSD more than 15 minutes late?
19%
chance · ±2 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
19%
Leave 15+ late
12%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.9d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at FSD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Leave PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Arrive at FSD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to FSD?
On time or early
81%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
7pm departures from PHX are often late
↑
PHX is prone to delays
↑
PHX is busy at that time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX
↓
Wednesdays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
PHX (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
FSD (destination)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 10,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.