Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Nov 4, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 6246
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, November 11
OO 6246 · BNA → ORD
departs 5:26 PM CT · arrives 7:20 PM CT
Forecast issued Mon 9:00 AM ET · 57h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 39%
Tue 11/10 22%
Wed 11/11
Thu 11/12 35%
Fri 11/13 36%
Sun 11/15 43%
Odds over time
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
46%
chance · ±2 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
46%
Leave 15+ late
28%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.8d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed – in 24h
–
46%
Yes 46%
No 54%
Leave BNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed – in 24h
–
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Arrive at ORD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed – in 24h
–
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ORD?
On time or early
54%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
19%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late
↑
Cloud base down to 600 ft forecast at ORD that day
↑
5pm departures from BNA are often late
↓
Wednesdays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
BNA (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.07 in
ORD (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.03 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.