Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Nov 4, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 1111 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, November 11

UA 1111 · SFO → LIH

departs 8:57 AM PT · arrives 12:41 PM HT

Forecast issued Mon 5:00 AM ET · 55h before departure

Arrive at LIH more than 15 minutes late?

8% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to LIH?

On time or early
91%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ SFO is prone to delays

↓ Wednesdays in November are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

Weather at each end

SFO (origin) Gusts7 kt Ceiling1,700 ft Visibility5 mi Precipnone

LIH (destination) Gusts28 kt Ceiling4,200 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1111 · SFO → LIH

Odds over time

How late will it get to LIH?