Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Nov 4, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 1227 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, November 11

UA 1227 · SFO → ACV

departs 6:44 PM PT · arrives 8:08 PM PT

Forecast issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 46h before departure

Arrive at ACV more than 15 minutes late?

15% chance · ±2 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ACV?

On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 6pm departures from SFO are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ This flight has been late 21% of the time recently

↓ Cloud base down to 400 ft forecast at SFO that day

↓ Wednesdays in November are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

SFO (origin) Gusts6 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility7 mi Precipnone

ACV (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility4 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1227 · SFO → ACV

Odds over time

How late will it get to ACV?