UA 1288 · ORD → PHX

departs 4:19 PM CT · arrives 7:12 PM MT

Forecast issued Wed 1:00 PM ET · 4h before departure

Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?

39% chance · ±0 pts +15 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to PHX?

On time or early
61%
15–30 min late
23%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 4pm departures from ORD are often late

↑ ORD is busy at that time

↑ Arrivals into PHX at that hour are often late

↓ Wednesdays in November are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceiling3,833 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.02 in

PHX (destination) Gusts5 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1288 · ORD → PHX

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHX?