UA 1924 · LAS → SFO

departs 11:21 AM PT · arrives 1:05 PM PT

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 16h before departure

Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?

53% chance · ±6 pts +27 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SFO?

On time or early
47%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
19%
1–2 hours late
12%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ SFO is prone to delays

↑ Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.3 mi forecast at SFO that day

↑ Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late

↓ Wednesdays in November are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS

Weather at each end

LAS (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SFO (destination) Gusts7 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility0.3 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1924 · LAS → SFO

Odds over time

How late will it get to SFO?