Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Nov 4, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 1958 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, November 11

UA 1958 · OGG → SFO

departs 7:54 AM HT · arrives 3:06 PM PT

Forecast issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · 45h before departure

Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?

8% chance · ±2 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SFO?

On time or early
92%
15–30 min late
1%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late

↑ Gusts to 41 kt, cloud base down to 900 ft forecast at OGG that day

↑ SFO is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

↓ 7am departures from OGG are usually not late

Weather at each end

OGG (origin) Gusts41 kt Ceiling900 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SFO (destination) Gusts6 kt Ceiling1,800 ft Visibility4 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1958 · OGG → SFO

Odds over time

How late will it get to SFO?