UA 19 · EWR → MXP

took off 6:03 PM ET · expected to land 7:08 AM CET (scheduled 5:47 PM ET → 7:33 AM CET)

Forecast issued Wed 8:00 PM ET · 2h after departure

Arrive at MXP more than 15 minutes late?

<1% chance · ±0 pts +6 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to MXP?

LIVE

On time or early
100%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ EWR is prone to delays

↑ 5pm departures from EWR are often late

↑ EWR is busy at that time

↓ Wednesdays in November are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MXP

Weather at each end

EWR (origin) Gusts— Ceiling— Visibility— Precip—

MXP (destination) Gusts— Ceiling— Visibility— Precip—

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 19 · EWR → MXP

Odds over time

How late will it get to MXP?