Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Nov 4, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 2086 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, November 11

UA 2086 · IAH → CMH

departs 8:13 PM CT · arrives 11:59 PM ET

Forecast issued Mon 9:00 PM ET · 48h before departure

Arrive at CMH more than 15 minutes late?

20% chance · ±0 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to CMH?

On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 8pm departures from IAH are often late

↑ This flight has been late 22% of the time recently

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Wednesdays in November are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at IAH

Weather at each end

IAH (origin) Gusts6 kt Ceiling3,500 ft Visibility7 mi Precipnone

CMH (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling3,167 ft Visibility9 mi Precip0.01 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2086 · IAH → CMH

Odds over time

How late will it get to CMH?