Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Nov 4, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 2274 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, November 11

UA 2274 · SAN → SFO

departs 7:15 AM PT · arrives 9:01 AM PT

Forecast issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · 61h before departure

Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?

25% chance · ±3 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SFO?

On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late

↑ This flight has been late 43% of the time recently

↑ SFO is prone to delays

↓ Wednesdays in November are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SAN

Weather at each end

SAN (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SFO (destination) Gusts7 kt Ceiling1,800 ft Visibility5 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2274 · SAN → SFO

Odds over time

How late will it get to SFO?