Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Nov 4, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 2328 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, November 11

UA 2328 · YVR → SFO

departs 7:54 AM MST · arrives 9:21 AM PT

Forecast issued Sun 5:00 PM ET · 65h before departure

Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?

25% chance · ±4 pts +5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SFO?

On time or early
73%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 25 kt, cloud base down to 1,200 ft, 0.7 in of rain forecast at YVR that day

↑ SFO is prone to delays

↑ Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late

↓ Wednesdays in November are usually quieter than average

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

YVR (origin) Gusts25 kt Ceiling1,200 ft Visibility6 mi Precip0.67 in

SFO (destination) Gusts6 kt Ceiling1,800 ft Visibility5 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2328 · YVR → SFO

Odds over time

How late will it get to SFO?