Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Nov 4, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 2421 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, November 11

UA 2421 · SFO → YVR

departs 10:14 AM PT · arrives 1:39 PM MST

Forecast issued Mon 5:00 PM ET · 44h before departure

Arrive at YVR more than 15 minutes late?

25% chance · ±4 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to YVR?

On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 10am departures from SFO are often late

↑ Gusts to 25 kt, cloud base down to 1,467 ft, 1.0 in of rain forecast at YVR that day

↑ This flight has been late 39% of the time recently

↓ Wednesdays in November are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

Weather at each end

SFO (origin) Gusts6 kt Ceiling1,800 ft Visibility4 mi Precipnone

YVR (destination) Gusts25 kt Ceiling1,467 ft Visibility5 mi Precip1.00 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2421 · SFO → YVR

Odds over time

How late will it get to YVR?