Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Nov 4, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 2467 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, November 11

UA 2467 · SFO → EWR

departs 12:16 PM PT · arrives 8:32 PM ET

Forecast issued Mon 10:00 PM ET · 41h before departure

Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?

32% chance · ±7 pts +4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to EWR?

On time or early
67%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 12pm departures from SFO are often late

↑ EWR is prone to delays

↑ Arrivals into EWR at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at EWR

↓ Wednesdays in November are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

SFO (origin) Gusts6 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility5 mi Precipnone

EWR (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceiling11,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2467 · SFO → EWR

Odds over time

How late will it get to EWR?