Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Nov 4, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 2471 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, November 11

UA 2471 · MCI → ORD

departs 9:40 AM CT · arrives 11:25 AM CT

Forecast issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · 62h before departure

Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?

11% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ORD?

On time or early
89%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ ORD is busy at that time

↑ Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late

↑ This flight has been late 22% of the time recently

↓ Wednesdays in November are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MCI

Weather at each end

MCI (origin) Gusts25 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

ORD (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility3 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2471 · MCI → ORD

Odds over time

How late will it get to ORD?