Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Nov 4, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 254 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, November 11

UA 254 · EWR → ORD

departs 6:15 PM ET · arrives 8:10 PM CT

Forecast issued Sun 10:00 PM ET · 68h before departure

Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?

46% chance · ±8 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ORD?

On time or early
53%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
18%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late

↑ EWR is prone to delays

↑ This flight has been late 51% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at EWR

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

EWR (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

ORD (destination) Gusts14 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.01 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 254 · EWR → ORD

Odds over time

How late will it get to ORD?