Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Nov 4, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 2827 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, November 11

UA 2827 · ORD → TPA

departs 8:11 PM CT · arrives 12:07 AM ET

Forecast issued Mon 9:00 PM ET · 48h before departure

Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?

19% chance · ±2 pts −2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to TPA?

On time or early
81%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 8pm departures from ORD are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Arrivals into TPA at that hour are often late

↓ Wednesdays in November are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at TPA

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceiling2,200 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.01 in

TPA (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceiling4,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2827 · ORD → TPA

Odds over time

How late will it get to TPA?